In December 2022, with BTC hovering in the 17K range after the FTX unwind , the question is when is the bottom coming ? Or in other words is BTC in a good range to stack or is more waiting required?
A few thoughts, like I thought about this for too long, hours. What got me going was all these predictions on the business news, 5K,10K,13.5K, whatnot. So a theory stood out based on looking back at history using the MVRV Z-Score and Puell Multiple from lookintobitcoin.com and the Mayer multiple from https://bitcoinition.com/charts/mayer-multiple/
Examine the 2022 low and the last low (Dec 2018 ) on the Puell and Mayer Multiples
Hunting for a low in the Puell and Mayer Multiple charts something interesting jumps out, they both point to a July 2022 time when BTC was around 20K. Looking back to December 2018 when they were both in the same kind of zone and at a bottom the BTC price at 3.2K was a definite good buy. BTC spent a lot of time at 6.5K in the Fall of 2018 and then dropped after the November 15th, due to a FED rate hike. Confirming by looking at the MVRV Z- Score, the negative zones have seemed to coincide with the prices that are worth accumulating at. Now as of December 2022, all three seem to have all hit their low already and are climbing higher.
Hints at 20K and below
The fact that the Puell and Mayer hit a low in 2022, mid year and both print 20K BTC at least for me, gives a hint. Anything under 20K is pretty good, so hunt those local lows. (Like, buy at the bottom of the 20 day Bollinger Bands or even watch 200 Day Bollinger Bands for a dip around 1.5 SD below the midline. )Yes, the bottom could really go lower than the 15.5K. It certainly would have as the DXY (Dollar Index against a basket f currencies, such as Euro, Yen, CAD, Swiss Franc, Krona, GBP and I am sure I am forgetting one or two more) was pointing down pretty good by the time FTX hit the skids. If the DXY was significantly higher, a drop to 12-13K would not have been out of the question. Ironically, BTC looked like it was just about to move higher when the FTX meltdown crushed it down. It seems almost like some entity was hovering their finger over the push BTC down button waiting to release the FTX news, probably just a coincidence but a strange one though.
Here are the charts, judge for yourself, time will tell on this theory
