Tag Archives: Bitcoin

Monetary System Escape Hatch

MEH: Money Escape Hatch

 Money is power – your money, the power to spend.

An escape hatch from the Monetary System

Recently I was the victim of several types of fraud through the legacy monetary system, banking counter-party risk basically.

  • Debit card fraud: A transaction that I did not make showed up on my account. Required getting a new card and the bank did take care of the fraudulent charges.
  • A fraud about debit card fraud: A fraudster called me, preceded by a text that told me of a suspicious card transaction, spoofing the banks own phone number no less. They tried to get me to give up my credentials over the phone and then pretended there were several checks written against my checking account. They tried to run me through the process of setting up Zelle and having me send money to a weird email address. I just played along and acted like I didn’t understand how to use the Internet until the call dead ended.
  • Law firm fraud: A law firm, a lawsuit mill, files a fraudulent suit in the wrong venue using a fake address, so I get sued without my knowledge, resulting in a default judgment. I caught this in time before they were able to execute the judgment, or else they could have performed a money grab out of the bank account, without my knowledge. I informed the court of the fraud, the lawfirm, the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau  CFPB and all other parties that had a hand in this. This was a shocker as I didn’t even realize that his type of fraud existed.

Thoughts

After all this I was thinking about what could be done to lock up money, away from the reach of fraudsters as there is counterparty risk to a lot of things money related, especially in the legacy banking world. Some banks don’t even offer good security, like 2FA via a security key only and NOT 2FA texting to a mobile number that can be spoofed or email, equally weak.

Self custody of Bitcoin seems like the most solid way in light of the weaknesses in the monetary system. Why Bitcoin? Other tokens have less utility, why do we need 1000s of them, and some might be counted as securities someday and some have more inflation as  tokens are minted at the whim of the founders or core team and so on.

But, there are caveats:

  • You need to know what you are doing or else you can blow you cover and compromise your keys and therefore coins and also be too ‘public’ with transactions.
  • Corollary: Not your keys, not your coins!
  • Don’t trust, verify
  • Bitcoin is pseudo anonymous. You are sitting behind a public key and if you use a limited set of keys repeatedly it is possible to trace, via history on the blockchain, who you are and how many sats you have stacked. This is particularly true of an address used, lets say as a donation or payment address which is static. Ideally, you want dynamic addresses. Revealing too much information like this could make you a magnet for fraudsters that decide it is worth trying to, let’s say hack your warm wallets by injecting malicious code on your phone or PC, via an email with a cat video. Or spoof your phone number to bypass 2FA and so on. Heck, they might even try to track down where you live via social media and park in front of your house and break into the WiFi by stepping in on the four way handshake used to secure it, then they are on your home network and have access to every device directly!
  • Always visually verify addresses you send to. Just in case some copy/paste virus gets in the middle and changes the address.

 

Suggestions for caveats:

  • Your keys = Your Coins: Store the bulk of your stack on a cold wallet or paper wallet, in a safe place. Seed phrases as well. Keep only a small amount on a hot wallet, like an app or web wallet, exchange,etc.
  • Stay Private: Use methods to conceal the path of transactions by breaking the address linkage, effectively creating dynamic addresses. Porting through privacy coins comes to mind here and for a BTC only solution, Wasabi wallet, linked to a cold wallet such as Coldcard, BTC only wallet that can be air gapped.
  • Equipment SEC: Air gapped wallet allows you to use something like an SD card to move a partially signed transaction to the cold wallet to sign and back to a hot wallet that is watch only, so it can only take in but, not spend BTC. You can only spend by creating a partially signed transaction and moving it by hand using SD card to cold wallet, signing and moving it back via SD card. Sounds complicated but, is secure. No compromise and follows the verify and don’t  trust the hot wallet sitting on the phone or PC connected 24/7 to the Internet, making it only medium secure. Keep phones, PCs and Wifi secure, good passwords/biometrics and keep thinking through the holes lurking in security.
  • Dumb Human Things: Verify addresses when sending, use excellent passwords and PINs, read the instructions on equipment, like wallets, seedphrase security. Don’t get conned, don’t brag, don’t accidentally dox yourself. People are always inventing new ways to screw things up, so even with the best technology and encryption, mistakes happen, look on the Internet for more examples.

 

Idea on using Wasabi Wallet to enhance privacy along with cold storage

You can use Wasabi Wallet to enhance the privacy of your coins before transferring them to a cold wallet. Here’s a step-by-step process:

  1. Transfer Funds to Wasabi Wallet:
    • Transfer your funds from the exchange or other warm wallets to your Wasabi Wallet. This can be done by sending the funds to an address generated by your Wasabi Wallet.
  2. Initiate CoinJoin Transaction in Wasabi:
    • After receiving the funds in your Wasabi Wallet, initiate a CoinJoin transaction within Wasabi. This process will combine your transaction with those of other users, significantly enhancing privacy.
  3. Wait for Confirmation:
    • After initiating the CoinJoin, wait for the transaction to be confirmed on the Bitcoin network. This may take some time, as it depends on network congestion and the number of confirmations required.
  4. Send Funds to Cold Wallet:
    • Once the CoinJoin transaction is confirmed, you can safely send the funds from your Wasabi Wallet to your cold wallet. This step ensures that the funds you send to the cold wallet have undergone the privacy-enhancing CoinJoin process.
  5. Consider Multiple Rounds of CoinJoin:
    • For additional privacy, you may consider repeating the CoinJoin process with the funds in your Wasabi Wallet before sending them to the cold wallet. This can be done by initiating another CoinJoin transaction within Wasabi.

Remember, while this process can significantly enhance privacy, it doesn’t provide absolute anonymity. Also, the privacy features depend on the number of participants in the CoinJoin process, so it’s beneficial if more users are actively participating in CoinJoin transactions.

Always stay informed about the latest features and best practices in using Wasabi Wallet, as the specifics of the wallet’s functionality may evolve over time. Additionally, consider the transaction fees and potential delays associated with the CoinJoin process and Bitcoin network confirmations.

Alternative Idea Using Monero Swap

Just an idea that I was thinking of, not sure if it would be as good as the solution above using Coinjoin. But, the idea is to take some kind of coin BTC, USDC, whatever that you on ramped from USD via an exchange. Use some kind of swap, like SimpleSwap or the swap feature of a wallet such as Exodus and swap the non private coins from an exchange into XMR on a wallet, then swap to something like BTC on the cold wallet. When spending, run backwards, swap to XMR, then to the crypto of your choice and spend

When you convert BTC to XMR, the transaction history of the BTC is effectively broken, as the privacy features of Monero make it difficult to trace the source of funds. However, when you swap back to BTC, the privacy features of Monero may not be as effective, and your transactions could potentially be traced from that point onward.

It’s essential to note that while Monero provides strong privacy features, the overall privacy of any cryptocurrency transaction depends on various factors, including the platforms and services used for the swaps. Additionally, the regulatory environment surrounding cryptocurrency exchanges and transactions may impact the level of privacy you can achieve.

Word-cloud-for-post-on-large-price-moves

Thoughts on the best BTC price moves

As the great and powerful Satoshi Nakamoto once said, “If you don’t believe me or don’t get it, I don’t have time to try to convince you, sorry.”

For a while I have used a piece of code that started as back-testing code and forked it to produce output whenever BTC-USD makes a 2 standard deviation move in price up or down. Basically I manually adjusted the threshold that is normally a fluid value in backtesting to a fixed value, so that 95% of the time a U for Up, or D for Down move is not recorded, It’s counted as O, which means nothing interesting happened and is not printed. CRON runs this hourly and the machine responsible for trading runs 24/7 and collects prices, since August 28,2018. It even plays a sound when one of these outlier moves occurs.

Here are a few lines from the end of the output….

2024-01-03 16:00:02.618000       63874 42197.47 43004.35 U 2 1.02
2024-01-03 19:00:03.434000       63877 42923.71 42269.13 D 2 0.98
O: 43795  95.0%
D: 1165  2.5%
U: 1148  2.5%

The top two lines have a time stamp followed by a tick count, this is where it is in the data set, in order, adding 1 per hour. Next are the two prices, the starting and ending prices, U or D, signalling which way it just went. The next number shows how many hours have elapsed since the last radical move followed by the scale of the move. This is a rounded number that shows what number would be required to multiply the first price to get the current price, how big a move in other words.

2 Standard Deviations for Bitcoin

Daily

I recently adjusted the calibration threshold as BTC is settling down into less radical swings as time goes on. Currently it is….

THRESHOLD = 0.01459 # 0.0156

…which means on an hourly basis a 1.459% move registers as a 2 standard deviation move. It was 1.56% earlier this year, so volatility is trending down over time.

Can that be tradable, not likely as fees and slippage would most likely eat up the 1.459%, granted some higher swings do occur and I have pondered this. What is you bought all the big down moves and sold on the big up moves. Sounds good in theory and would most likely only work in an up market or else, you just wind up buying at bad entries and ‘bag hold’ too much at a loss until the next bull run.

Weekly

I got the idea to look at a daily and weekly time frame. Weekly is such a short output that I will paste it here….

Start of Data: 2018-09-05
Lines of input data: 279
Lines to process: 279
2018-11-21 05:00:11.243000       17809 6268.44 4452.68 D 10 0.71
2019-04-03 04:00:15.519000       17828 3976.88 5050.01 U 18 1.27
2019-05-15 04:00:15.266000       17834 5782.6 8063.78 U 5 1.39
2019-06-26 04:00:16.011000       17840 9139.01 12228.39 U 5 1.34
2019-07-17 04:00:14.972000       17843 12983.74 9411.06 D 2 0.72
2020-03-15 04:00:05.033000       17878 8749.01 5168.75 D 34 0.59
2020-08-02 04:00:06.489000       17898 9686.6 12000.0 U 19 1.24
2020-12-20 05:00:12.005000       17918 18865.0 23460.71 U 19 1.24
2021-01-03 05:00:14.866000       17920 26732.29 33231.68 U 1 1.24
2021-02-14 05:00:19.359000       17926 38365.06 47607.09 U 5 1.24
2021-03-14 05:00:09.349000       17930 49437.95 61191.88 U 3 1.24
2021-08-01 04:00:03.128000       17950 34192.29 42461.2 U 19 1.24
2022-06-19 04:00:02.056000       17996 27515.55 18282.06 D 45 0.66
2023-03-19 04:00:02.137000       18035 20598.23 27282.54 U 38 1.32
D: 4  1.4%
O: 264  95.0%
U: 10  3.6%

A few things to note:

  • There is asymmetry as the market has in general been rising since 2018, so there are only 4 ‘large’ down moves and 10 up. 1.4% weeks are up moves, 3.6% are down. The number after U and D is the weeks between moves.
  • Note the magnitude of the moves. They are truly massive. As the threshold is now 0.235.
  • Note that the 5 sequential up moves in a row 2020-2021 barely made in over the threshold at 1.24
  • Make note of the fact that Bitcoin is calming down over the years by looking at how many times per year it makes these epic moves.
  • Last but not least. I wonder if the what the linear regression of the prices would tell. Perhaps good targets for the future?
Large Weekly BTC Price Moves
Large Weekly BTC Price Moves

From now on, I will monitor this more carefully. As one can see, entry and exit although infrequent would have lead to stellar performance. I’ve been doing crypto TA and writing related code for almost 6 years now and it is still interesting that some new price relationships can be sussed out.

Looking ahead

It’s a guess buy based on the chart above it will be worth seeing if there is a pullback below the price of the blue linear regression termination, 37K-ish down to the termination of the D and E price lines 20598.23 27282.54. It will be interesting to followup on this.

Daily

For daily the THRESHOLD = 0.076, so that means greater that 7.6% moves are counted. Below I have pasted in the 2022 to 2023 results. 2022 being terrible and 2023 awesome. I let the reader ponder the readability of these price moves.

 

2022-02-05 05:00:03.175000       19053 37326.16 41505.25 U 62 1.11
2022-02-24 05:00:04.472000       19072 38042.82 35122.81 D 18 0.92
2022-02-25 05:00:04.643000       19073 35122.81 38740.11 U 0 1.1
2022-03-01 05:00:06.659000       19077 37830.34 43388.77 U 3 1.15
2022-03-09 05:00:02.706000       19085 38554.62 41656.28 U 7 1.08
2022-05-06 04:00:02.780000       19143 39727.55 36446.18 D 57 0.92
2022-05-10 04:00:02.150000       19147 33556.09 30678.51 D 3 0.91
2022-05-12 04:00:02.124000       19149 31191.22 28234.93 D 1 0.91
2022-05-13 04:00:02.622000       19150 28234.93 30523.85 U 0 1.08
2022-06-14 04:00:02.293000       19182 25483.35 22074.01 D 31 0.87
2022-06-17 04:00:02.808000       19185 22182.06 20359.29 D 2 0.92
2022-06-19 04:00:02.056000       19187 20424.2 18282.06 D 1 0.9
2022-06-20 04:00:02.514000       19188 18282.06 19961.12 U 0 1.09
2022-07-08 04:00:02.559000       19206 20465.35 22125.65 U 17 1.08
2022-07-28 04:00:01.952000       19226 21076.25 23137.12 U 19 1.1
2022-09-14 04:00:02.511000       19274 22235.95 20324.97 D 47 0.91
2022-11-10 05:00:02.217000       19331 18242.1 16433.61 D 56 0.9
2023-01-14 05:00:02.777000       19396 18820.73 20901.76 U 64 1.11
2023-01-21 05:00:02.053000       19403 20991.31 22602.95 U 6 1.08
2023-02-16 05:00:02.079000       19429 22092.46 24634.33 U 25 1.12
2023-03-10 05:00:02.124000       19451 21737.7 19877.69 D 21 0.91
2023-03-13 04:00:01.980000       19454 20598.23 22326.45 U 2 1.08
2023-03-14 04:00:02.715000       19455 22326.45 24517.05 U 0 1.1
2023-08-18 04:00:02.811000       19612 28619.6 26395.38 D 156 0.92
2023-10-24 03:00:02.742000       19679 30389.89 34553.97 U 66 1.14
D: 46  2.4%
O: 1856  95.0%
U: 51  2.6%

 

Looking at the plot for daily and remember this does not mean the X axis is time, just moves, even though it does look similar to a price -vs- time chart. In this case both regression lines overlap 100%.

 

Large BTC Daily Price Moves
Large BTC Daily Price Moves

Looking ahead

This is a guess but looking at this I am inclined to think a pullback between the regression line termination at 40K and the termination of the D and E price lines at 30 and 35K would be something to keep and eye out for.

Alternative Daily Move Chart

Taking the geometric mean of the daily and weekly thresholds, the result is 0.133. This produces using a daily tick an output that has as many large price moves as the weekly chart and can be seen as an alternative while slightly different, lines up similarly on the chart. The moves are roughly 3 standard deviation moves in this case.

Start of Data: 2018-08-30
Lines of input data: 1955
Lines to process: 1955
2018-11-20 05:00:17.949000       17880 5495.99 4641.55 D 81 0.84
2018-11-25 05:00:13.877000       17885 4301.01 3632.02 D 4 0.84
2019-04-03 04:00:15.519000       18014 4177.0 5050.01 U 128 1.21
2019-05-14 04:00:15.992000       18055 7016.99 7963.14 U 40 1.13
2019-06-28 04:00:15.313000       18100 12821.64 11110.99 D 44 0.87
2019-10-26 04:00:17.489000       18220 7455.01 9599.17 U 119 1.29
2020-03-13 04:00:04.431000       18359 7659.09 5385.44 D 138 0.7
2020-03-20 04:00:04.240000       18366 5301.62 6163.32 U 6 1.16
2020-04-30 04:00:04.743000       18407 7821.73 9291.9 U 40 1.19
2021-01-06 05:00:08.853000       18658 30880.51 35456.93 U 250 1.15
2021-02-09 05:00:09.512000       18692 38618.01 46888.08 U 33 1.21
2022-03-01 05:00:06.659000       19077 37830.34 43388.77 U 384 1.15
2022-06-14 04:00:02.293000       19182 25483.35 22074.01 D 104 0.87
2023-10-24 03:00:02.742000       19679 30389.89 34553.97 U 496 1.14
U: 9  0.5%
O: 1940  99.3%
D: 5  0.3%

 

Large-BTC-Daily-Moves-w-Linear-Regression-0.133
Large-BTC-Daily-Moves-w-Linear-Regression-0.133

 

Code

Code is on Github, it is quite a hack as it was made from pieces of other backtest code and production code that has not been cleaned or refactored.

https://github.com/erickclasen/cbpro-cli-tools/blob/main/uod.py

Stacks of Coin

Bitcoin’s Soft Underbelly

The best way to make money is to go out and do it yourself.

Hey ChatGPT, Do you what Bitcoin is?

Yes, I am familiar with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that uses cryptography for security and is supported by a peer-to-peer network. It was created in 2009 by an unknown individual or group of individuals using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto.

Bitcoin is based on a distributed ledger technology called the blockchain, which allows it to operate without the need for a central authority. Transactions are recorded in blocks, which are linked together in a chain. This chain of blocks is secured using complex mathematical algorithms, which makes it extremely difficult to alter the record of transactions.

Bitcoin can be used to send and receive payments over the internet, and it has attracted a lot of attention due to its potential to disrupt traditional financial systems. However, it has also been associated with criminal activities, and its value can be volatile.

Hidden Risks

Just to linger on the topic for a moment, Bitcoin, has another risk that does not get enough mention. Cryptography has a shelf life and eventually breaks, either via some discovery of a short path to crack a private key given a public key or collisions. Bitcoin uses SHA256 encryption which seems safe for now but, as with all hash algorithms, there is no closed form solution that shows it is watertight. It’s more along the lines of, well the last cryptographic code broke because of X,Y or Z, so lets beef the new one up to be stronger in those areas. But, someone might find a crack in SHA256 tomorrow, just like what happened for SHA-1 not too long ago From what I recall it was a university research project that broke it. Or looking at the second failure mode, when will brute force collision with a large number of private keys become possible and profitable, It’s only a matter of time. 256 bits is a lot a space to brute force through. But, computing power (Now multi threaded quantum computing too ) grows over time and large entities such as nation states with deep pockets could do something like this at some point in the not so distant future. Is this possible, who knows now, but someday it might.

There are known knowns, known unknowns and then the ones that get you when you least expect it, unknown unknowns and this risk clearly falls in that category.

Interesting to Skim

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/M-23-02-M-Memo-on-Migrating-to-Post-Quantum-Cryptography.pdf

BTC When Bottom

In December 2022, with BTC hovering in the 17K range after the FTX unwind , the question is when is the bottom coming ? Or in other words is BTC in a good range to stack or is more waiting required?

A few thoughts, like I thought about this for too long, hours. What got me going was all these predictions on the business news, 5K,10K,13.5K, whatnot. So a theory stood out based on looking back at history using the MVRV Z-Score and Puell Multiple from lookintobitcoin.com and the Mayer multiple from https://bitcoinition.com/charts/mayer-multiple/

Examine the 2022 low and the last low (Dec 2018 ) on the Puell and Mayer Multiples

Hunting for a low in the Puell and Mayer Multiple charts something interesting jumps out, they both point to a July 2022 time when BTC was around 20K. Looking back to December 2018 when they were both in the same kind of zone and at a bottom the BTC price at 3.2K was a definite good buy. BTC spent a lot of time at 6.5K in the Fall of 2018 and then dropped after the  November 15th, due to a FED rate hike. Confirming by looking at the MVRV Z- Score, the negative zones have seemed to coincide with the prices that are worth accumulating at. Now as of December 2022, all three seem to have all hit their low already and are climbing higher.

Hints at 20K and below

The fact that the Puell and Mayer hit a low in 2022, mid year and both print 20K BTC at least for me, gives a hint. Anything under 20K is pretty good, so hunt those local lows. (Like, buy at the bottom of the 20 day Bollinger Bands or even watch 200 Day Bollinger Bands for a dip around 1.5 SD below the midline. )Yes, the bottom could really go lower than the 15.5K. It certainly would have as the DXY (Dollar Index against a basket f currencies, such as Euro, Yen, CAD, Swiss Franc, Krona, GBP and I am sure I am forgetting one or two more) was pointing down pretty good by the time FTX hit the skids. If the DXY was significantly higher, a drop to 12-13K would not have been out of the question. Ironically, BTC looked like it was just about to move higher when the FTX meltdown crushed it down. It seems almost like some entity was hovering their finger over the push BTC down button waiting to release the FTX news, probably just a coincidence but a strange one though.

Here are the charts, judge for yourself, time will tell on this theory

Makes a lot of good points on BTC versus Fiat and bonus material on FTX

Incentives are the strongest force in the world. They explain why good people do awful things, why smart people do stupid things, and why ordinary people do amazing things. Nearly everyone underestimates how much their own beliefs and actions are influenced by their incentives, many of which are designed to fulfill someone else’s goals. – Morgan Housel

For a 21 year old, he gets it. He seems to have a grasp on monetary policy, gold to fiat history and the place that Bitcoin has in the world and it’s future. Plus he has the guy in the middle frame speechless the whole time, not sure if that’s good or bad but, interesting as I kept waiting to see if he was going to jump in the conversation at some point.

 

Additional thoughts on FTX

Incentives for fraud

The FTX implosion looks to be likely fraud or some kind of massive oversight and/or just some bad incentives. With the wrong incentives people can just plain behave badly. Morgan Housel has a short blog post on incentives that covers this topic better than I can here. But, basically once you create incentives that are tempting, too tempting, people can behave badly. People that normally would not steal or commit fraud start to bargain with themselves and wind up slowly dipping into bad behavior, if they don’t get caught, it keeps going. There are many cases of embezzlement that start as innocent “borrowing” from petty cash. Once no one notices that the cash is going out and not coming back ,over time there is an incentive to dip in more. And then you have these news stories of let’s say, because I remember this happening in a town near where I live, I’ll go with this following. Example: You have a town clerk that gets busted for being on the take to the tune of $30K, it all started slowly with small dips and grows to a big number.

Misjudgement and/or Incompetence

Or is FTX/Alameda more about a big misjudgement or incompetence. After all there are precedents for this. Smart people losing boat loads of money as they have not counted on some kind of fat tail event happening. This even occurred with Nobel Prize winners, freshly minted in 1997, Myron Shoales ( Of the Black-Scholes option pricing formula fame ) and Robert Merton ( also part of the  the same famous formula as a contributor ) when in 1998 John Merriweather’s LTCM, Long Term Capital Management imploded as they were seriously over-betting. They were heavily leveraged at the time, which is OK to a point, but they didn’t diversify enough so when things went wrong, the leverage actually went up, when they should have manually dialed it down. What happened at the time was that in 1998 Russia defaulted on it’s debt which LTCM was invested in but they also were invested in the same way with other foreign debt. Well, once one country defaults, it casts a shadow on the rest of the foreign debt as people start to get a bit paranoid as to who might default next. So if you are LTCM and you have a bunch of positions in this same kind of sovereign bonds all over the world, you are certainly not diversified  enough ( they might have thought this all sovereign bond debt was uncorrelated somehow, that bonds would never fall in unison) and if this chunk is a big part of your portfolio and it tanks guess what, bad news fast.

Death Spiral

With LTCM and others,  you get a situation where you have to liquidate something before a margin call happens, usally it’s good stuff that you might want to hold otherwise. This can depress prices of those assets. Soon a firm can get in a situation where the best description would be a reverse hedge and the losses mount on both sides of the trade. With leverage, large leverage 30,60X, it quickly consumes the real capital available. If you try to ask for more capital at this point, nervous lenders may sense panic and then the gig is up. Once lending banks or any other credit line smells something ‘funny’ in the air, panic calls for more capital, through price movements, insider info, whatever, they and other competitors will start to work against a firm like LTCM. They can trade against it and bleed it dry even faster, or they might start dumping the same assets pushing price down more and dry up any liquidity for a firm like LTCM to sell into. Then the problem grows so big that Fed has an emergency meeting and either puts other banks up to the challenge, the creditors, to carve up the carcass and potentially hold the assets until a better time to unload, or worst of all like in Lehman Brothers and etc, the taxpayer gets the bill, or QE happens, which generates inflation, just another tax.

LTCM could have taken the market down much like what happened 10 years later. A excellent course on how the economic collapse of 2008 played out is available at Khan Academy for free as all the material there is, Current Economics

Something like this could have happened at FTX, to much leverage and some fraud with users money, over-betting on the market as it was going into a down-cycle and they couldn’t get out of the dive. If this was a bull market, this kind of stunt might have worked out. Worst of all seems like they used their own FTT token as collateral. It seems like a real conflict of interest, if not just a bad idea as you have created what could be best described as a type of recursive risk. A risk that becomes riskier and you take on more risk. A few more anecdotes from LTCM thanks to one of my favorite books, William Poundstone’s Fortune’s Formula….

  • LTCM lost $4.4B from it’s peak, the partners aloe had dropped about $1.8B. The entire fund had shriveled to $28M in weeks.
  • Robert Merton (1997 Nobel Prize Winner) lost as much as $100M.
  • Larry Hilibrand took out a $24M loan to increase his stake in the fund, leverage on top of leverage. His net worth went from $100M to $20M in debt thanks to the loan. He requested a bailout from the banks carving up LTCM known as the consortium, they said no.

More Interesting FTX Reads

https://www.coindesk.com/layer2/2022/12/02/sam-bankman-frieds-self-incrimination-tour/

https://www.coindesk.com/layer2/2022/11/30/ftxs-collapse-was-a-crime-not-an-accident/

FTX Contagion Slowly Being Revealed

A good interview on this FTX issue is one between C.J Wilson and Josh Olszewicz. It’s well worth seeing them pick this FTX issue apart further.

Blockchain example slide

Proof of Work why use it and why does it use energy

Proof of Work

Proof of work relates to mining of cryptocurrency. It uses computing resources to solve a mathematical puzzle of sorts that takes a lot of compute power to solve but a minimum amount of power to verify that it has been completed. It is an example of a one way function. Easy to go one way but hard to go in the other. Imagine throwing a glass of water in the ocean, now imagine getting all of that water and only that water back out, like running a film backwards, might be impossible. The closer the one way function is to the glass in the ocean example the more secure a blockchain can be made. Why is that? Because it would take so much effort to mutate or corrupt the blockchain that it is not even worth trying.

Brilliant Idea, from Anti-SPAM to Blockchain

In the case of Bitcoin, mining occurs across thousands of nodes that can easily verify that the “work’ has been done and as long as there is a > 50% consensus among mining nodes , then the block is deemed valid and the nodes accept it and move on to the next block of transactions. So it would take an enormous amount of computing power to ‘fake’ a block and create a duplicate spend or a spend that pays an entity some unearned (Bitcoin) BTC, stealing it effectively. That in essence is the brilliance of Bitcoin and it’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto. All the ideas are not original, there was once an idea to use proof of work to prevent spam in email in the mid 1990s when SPAM became a nuisance. For regular uses it would delay the email by a few seconds, for a spammer sending out 1000’s of emails their computer would slow down to much to make it worth it. Satoshi Nakamoto took this idea and applied it to Bitcoin.

The chain part of block chain

On top of this, proof of work  that secures a single block, every block contains the hash of the previous block making it extremely hard to ‘fake’ out and create old blocks over as many hashes would have to be faked. So the longer the chain the more secure older transactions become as they become harder and harder to undo , or fake out.

Hashing in Cryptocurrency

Hashing is the key. Hashing is used in several ways in cryptocurrency.(toward the end of this post a second use is covered) . When mining a block a hash is generated for that block, a SHA256 hash. But not just any hash works. It has to be lower than a specific number determined by the difficulty adjustment, the so called target hash. This changes periodically to keep the outputs of blocks on the block chain, a giant electronic ledger of transactions, blocks are produced very 10 minutes on average. This also limits how many transactions can occur in a given time period. Blocks contain a finite number of transactions and they come out at period intervals, so there are only so many made per day. For Bitcoin this limits the daily transaction to something like around 300000. Other cryptocurrencies do better in this regard (but, buyer beware, they are beholden to companies or individuals that created them,so not independent from control like Bitcoin), so do layer 2 solutions like the Lightning network for Bitcoin. in the future most likely only large infrequent transactions will occur on Bitcoin main chain. With other solutions like the Lightning network or other cryptocurrencies serving to move money like PayPal or a Point Of Sale network, or Swift for that matter.

To create the special hash know as the target hash that meets the difficulty requirement means creating a hash that is lower than a specific 256 bit number. It contains a bunch of zeros at the beginning. This is done by add what is called a nonce ( just a random string will work, used just once  to make the hash come out lower than the target) to the block of transactions and computing the hash. The nonce can be a completely random string or a sequence of numbers tried in order, it really doesn’t matter. The only requirement is that whatever it is it creates a hash output that is lower than the number, target hash, specified by the difficulty requirement. In mining the first node that obtains this number will broadcast the result on the BTC network, all mining nodes will check it (hash the block and see if they agree, quick and easy to do), if it’s OK, the block becomes accepted added to the chain and that miner, the one who solved the hash, gets the block reward along with the fees for all the transactions that have been validated in the block. And, all nodes move on to the next block.

The hash itself

A typical block hash would look something like this…

00000000000000000007cd983a54a4eaf969d79961681fa2fa41eff0aba4a168

Notice all the zeros. With 256 byte number, using SHA256, it is hexadecimal where every number is 0-15 it takes a while to arrive at a number like this. Basically all the nodes that handle the blockchain that are mining are trying to get a ‘low’ number by changing the nonce.

Energy

This takes a lot of computing power and therefore energy. And, this is the complaint when it comes to cryptocurrency that are mined such as Bitcoin. The energy used to mine Bitcoin is equal to that of a small country. But, it has to be remembered that the whole financial technology sector of the economy still dwarfs the energy use of Bitcoin. Just imagine all of the ATMs alone that are plugged in all over the world, the computers running in the banks, heating, other electric and etc. Also, Bitcoin can be mined using energy that is otherwise orphaned. Meaning energy that can not be used for anything else. An example is natural gas and a petroleum well that might normally be flared off. Instead of flaring it off, it could be burned in a gas turbine turning a generator and run mining equipment. The mining equipment could be connected via Cell network or Satellite if no wire are available in a remote location. It is a way of burning a fuel at the source and generating value from it that otherwise would go to waste.

Proof of Work Example

Just a simple example of using a nonce along with a string ‘hello’ in this case and then printing out the resulting hashes of the new compound string of hello+nonce.

As more zeroes are required it gets harder and harder to find a nonce that will satisfy the requirement. To find the first hash with one zero at the start it takes 28 tries, ‘hello28’.

To get 8 leading zeroes it takes hello1202655595  = 1202655595 tries, on fairly regular computer it took from 2022-11-19 15:42 to 2022-11-19 16:48. Just over 1 hour.

Proof of Work Here it comes, ready…

I can give you the hash…

00000000e0d103722c6e172e145d15b9e909e109b47b30d741911bdb3cf3da84

and the string….

hello1202655595

….and this is proof that work was done. You can prove it. It took work to get this result, the computer ‘did’ something hard. It takes almost no energy and time to verify that the hash above is generated by hello1202655595, so it is cheap to verify but expensive to produce.

By ‘stamping’ this result into the blocks on the blockchain, hash of previous block into every block, it is very hard (glass of water back out the ocean hard) to create a forgery or do some other type of nastiness to the blockchain. Proof of Work secures the blockchain.

(Python code at the bottom of this post)

erick@OptiPlex-7010:~/python/hashing$ python3 multi-pow-hash-of-string.py 
Enter String to hash: hello
2cf24dba5fb0a30e26e83b2ac5b9e29e1b161e5c1fa7425e73043362938b9824
2022-11-19 15:42:15.173991 1 hello28 02a13c40ba00dc0fb199d3cbe5b01be59d937775890243fd411bdf001935ffc8
2022-11-19 15:42:15.175116 2 hello227 001b92541ed0a22b0cb89018b561d895503206c0082c0ecf2d0b7e5182191eed
2022-11-19 15:42:15.206154 3 hello10284 0006bc9ad4253c42e32b546dc17e5ea3fedaecdabef371b09906cea9387e8695
2022-11-19 15:42:15.350531 4 hello60067 0000e49eab06aa7a6b3aef7708991b91a7e01451fd67f520b832b89b18f4e7de
2022-11-19 15:42:15.771205 5 hello156056 0000037660ee0e22df67a053537e000325bbfad2cce9b8b7c795f6aa961d5cb7
2022-11-19 15:43:47.285252 6 hello33290382 000000865194de5c0744d72183dcce2eca2b69264b749a1798f1b6996baef7de
2022-11-19 15:49:22.363936 7 hello121001637 0000000bcd89bc714263460f7b1fc82562410b96eaeec5cc2175e83f2d215046
2022-11-19 16:48:46.136385 8 hello1202655595 00000000e0d103722c6e172e145d15b9e909e109b47b30d741911bdb3cf3da84

Keys and Addresses

To round it out, the other main use of cryptography in cryptocurrencies, the private key, secures your ‘coins’. If you aren’t careful to hide and not reveal your private key, you lose your coins. Your public key which is basically translated into an address for BTC (and others) it is a 160 byte number can be freely given out, posted online, in email, put it anywhere you wish. Why? Because all someone an ever do with the public key/address is send you some ‘coin’. So if they did, great. And, if it is a publicly transparent blockchain like Bitcoin and most others, privacy coins such as Zcash and Monero for example being the exception, you can trace the transactions. Just put a public address into the browser search bar and various tools will appear that allow you to trace transactions to an address. So the criminals that think cryptocurrency gives them some kind of magic cloaking mechanism for their transactions are getting it wrong. The cryptography in cryptocurrency has nothing to do with keeping a record of transactions securing hidden away, in fact the transactions are as transparent as they could possibly be.

 



Infographic showing #3 a blockchain and a block consisting of it’s sequence number, the hash of the previous block and the nonce, plus a record of transactions.

The miner of the block gets the reward plus all the fees for the transactions. In 2021 when this was made the block reward was 6.25BTC per block mined. This is cut in half approximately every 4 years, until it drops off  altogether around the year 2140. By then the fees will be the only thing sustaining the miners financially. The fact that there is only a finite amount of Bitcoin that can be mined, ever, 21 Million of them, keeps inflation of Bitcoin at bay. This is not the case for all coins, some cryptocurrencies can create more and more coins at will, so they are inflationary. Bitcoin is a fixed supply of which most of it has been mined already. So most of the stock is already created and the flow of more coins gets lower and lower with each block reward halving, every 4 years. This concept of stock to flow is important because it is a measure of scarcity. If something can be made easily like fiat currency the flow can be a large input to the stock in existence. This is what is going on in 2022 with economies all over the world that have printed massive amounts of fiat money during the Covid crisis, when the stock to flow is not a good ratio, inflation results. The opposite occurs with gold for example, it is hard to increase the amount of gold pulled from the earth, so the flow of new gold into the current world stock of gold is less than 2% per year, (I think that I remember the max was just 2.2% somewhere in the WW2 time frame) so in essence the market is never flooded with new gold, which would debase gold against other stores of value.

Blockchain example slide

 

 

Blockchain example slide

'''
https://www.pythoncentral.io/hashing-strings-with-python/
'''
import hashlib
from datetime import datetime

mystring = input('Enter String to hash: ')
# Assumes the default UTF-8
hash_object = hashlib.sha256(mystring.encode())
print(hash_object.hexdigest())

for DIF in range(1,32):
    for n in range(1,1000000000000):

            x = mystring + str(n)
            hash_object = hashlib.sha256(x.encode())
            d = hash_object.hexdigest()

            #print(x,d)
            tally = 0

            for z in range(0,DIF):
                    if d[z] == '0':
                            tally += 1

            if tally == DIF:
                break

    timestamp = str(datetime.now())

    print(timestamp,DIF,x,d)

Resources

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452010-bitcoin-energy-usage-isnt-a-problem-heres-why

https://ingoldwetrust.report/the-stock-to-flow-ratio-as-the-most-significant-reason-for-golds-monetary-importance/?lang=en

JPEG image Metcalfe's Law BTC

Bitcoin Charting Resources for Long Term Investing

“Good investing is not necessarily about making good decisions. It’s about consistently not screwing up.” – Morgan Housel author of The Psychology of Money

Accumulation/Distribution Aids

2 year moving average investor tool

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/

Puell Multiple, an oscillator, accumulate at bottoms, distribute at tops

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/puell-multiple/

MVRV Z-Score, an oscillator, accumulate at bottoms, distribute at tops

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/

Pi cycle top indicator, finds tops…it actually worked again in 2021

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/

Market Sentiment, fear and greed index…

Fear mode = Might be a buying opportunity, people are scared and dumping BTC probably at a loss to them in full panic mode, macro indicators are crashing, full panic, bank run on exchanges, major crisis crypto or otherwise…

Greed Mode = Look out, euphoria is happening, price may drop soon as BTC is in the news and suckers buying in late in the game pushing the price parabolic, like the old saying, ” Bulls run up the stairs only to jump out the window.”…

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index/

HODL wave 1 year. BTC sitting on chain for more than a year, shows if people are accumulating or distributing

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/1-year-hodl-wave/

Realized Price, might be a good indicator of fair value for BTC.  A gauge of relative under/overvalue….

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/realized-price/

Wallet Sizes, who is holding large amounts of BTC, good to track the ‘smart money’, are they accumulating or distributing?

Wallet > 1 BTC

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-1-btc/

Wallet > 10 BTC

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-10-btc/

Wallet > 100 BTC

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-100-btc/

Wallet > 1000 BTC

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-1000-btc/

Look into Bitcoin, has many more charts…

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/


Mayer Multiple

Basically accumulate until it hits 2.4, then hold, sell at the top optionally, then when it drops below 1.5 start accumulating again.

https://bitcoinition.com/charts/mayer-multiple/

Metcalfe’s Law Model

This is a static chart, (don’t remember where it is from) would love to see this as a dynamic one. Seems to show a fair value for BTC. Paper on Metcalfe’s law and Bitcoin

Crypto Basics Notes

Having an ‘edge’ and surviving are two different things: the first requires the second. You need to avoid ruin. At all costs.” – Nassim Taleb

Class Slides

The following are the handmade slides from the class. Well all but the last one on valuation.

Resources

Here on this site

See the trading category on this site for more information on trading and investing on this site…

http://erick.heart-centered-living.org/trading/

On the Internet

Also, the following are resources that were mentioned in the class. Good places to start on the path to learning more about investing and crypto as well…

Subject: Game of Trades at 14:08:10, Mon Nov 15, 2021 from 192.168.1.66

https://www.youtube.com/c/GameofTrades


Subject: The Crypto Sniper at 14:05:40, Mon Nov 15, 2021 from 192.168.1.66

https://www.youtube.com/c/TheCryptoSniper


Subject: Brave New Coin at 14:04:54, Mon Nov 15, 2021 from 192.168.1.66

https://www.youtube.com/c/bravenewcoin


Subject: Josh Olszewicz at 14:03:59, Mon Nov 15, 2021 from 192.168.1.66

https://www.youtube.com/c/carpenoctom


Subject: ARK Invest at 14:02:21, Mon Nov 15, 2021 from 192.168.1.66

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCK-zlnUfoDHzUwXcbddtnkg


Subject: Breaking Bad Fat Stacks at 13:45:44, Mon Nov 15, 2021 from 192.168.1.66

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48OJbbI0DfE


Subject: Electrum Wallet at 17:49:48, Sun Nov 14, 2021 from 192.168.1.66

https://electrum.org/#home


Subject: 1964 Prices at 11:14:49, Sun Nov 14, 2021 from 192.168.1.29

https://www.reference.com/history/much-did-everyday-items-cost-1964-cfba9fcd6734ea4f https://misterboomer.com/2014/04/boomers-and-the-cost-of-living-in-1964/ http://www.348-409.com/1964flash.html


Subject: Silver Coin Value Guide at 11:11:02, Sun Nov 14, 2021 from 192.168.1.29

https://www.coinflation.com/silver_coin_values.html


Sorelle Amore Finance

As far as finance, I agree with most of what she has to say…

Some Crazy Price Moves

A class on crypto would not be complete without showing some crazy price moves that are only possible in the crypto world.

Intro to Cryprocurrency

This post is a bit of a quick rant on the basics of cryptocurrencies (crypto) and is just my opinions and not any advice on investing. It started as a response to someone that was interested in learning a bit of the basics of cryptocurrency. Then I got on a roll and covered a bit of ground. It does not contain many references to sources as I was working from memory of information that I have seen or heard.

Pros and Cons

One of the cons with cryptocurrencies is wading through the charlatans and hype out there. Scammers too, malware that tries to copy your crypto addresses as you cut and paste them, always visually confirm and never leak your private addresses in an unsecured environment, they are your money. hype and nonsense out there also applies to trading, investing and mining it. Lots of pros to it. But, it all really depends what you want to do with it. The options typically center around trading,investing,mining it and using it as a payment method. I’ll work through the list a bit and build my case for crypto as I move along. Mining a coin such as ETH ,is not profitable for most people at the moment, Currently electricity and equipment costs factor into this heavily. However this may change in the future as ETH will be moved from a proof of work to a proof of stake model (a bit much to explain in this intro, but if you go to the site name for the creator of Bitcoin, Nakamoto.com, there is a whole intro to cryptocurrency series of posts there), with ETH 2.0, along with other changes. Using it as a payment method is getting simpler every day, there are numerous apps for it, Cash App and Coinbase for example.  PayPal and Venmo will be integrating crypto purchases into there systems.

Fundamentals

What is going on that may cause prices to rise

People in Europe that work on the underpinnings of the banking system that allows money to move around under the hood, kind of like our ACH system here in the US are working with the folks who developed the crypto called LINK. This has leaked out, I saw the presentation where the guy giving it slipped and said the name that LINK uses in it’s code instead of the secret project name that they were using to cover up LINK’s involvement. These projects are typically secret with NDA’s and all but, human error and a slip of the tongue can happen. The US Gov’t, Treasury Dept. has hired the person that developed the stable coin called USDC for Coinbase. He worked for a bank prior to Coinbase, the name I can’t remember, but there is a picture of him with 2 other co workers that now work in the Treasury Dept. so he was most likely hired because he was the lead in developing the USDC stable coin for Coinbase. A stable coin is a coin that attempts to stay in lockstep with a fiat currency. USDC is always $1, some others ary a little bit around $1, like a range a few pennies up and down at most. Examples are Tether and DAI. On top the Gov’t reserach into an electronic coin, there was initial language in the draft for the stimulus package that was removed that reference disbursing payments using electronic coins developed by the US Gov’t. I saw copies of this, it was interesting to see a reference to an electronic coin in a gov’t doc. Also, large banks are starting to work to become custodians for crypto currencies as well, they are entering into agreements with exchanges to be the custodians of large amount of crypto. BTC futures are traded on the Chicago exchange (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), something the big boys in the investment banks are interested in. There is something called BAKKT that the investment banks are working on, I forgot the details but, it relates to cryptocurrencies Why does this matter? This is all a big pro. Because governments adopting blockchain technology, Investment banks are starting to use crypto as an investment vehicle and considering being custodians of it and integrating blockchain tech into transactions. All of this validates it’s existence, which means only more growth in the future as people (investors really and end users eventually) realize it is not some kind of fad and a toy for tech hobbyists. Remember the curve of other tech. The first home computers were also “toys” and now we can’t live without (several of them, think phones too) them, the same will happen with crypto currencies in time. As far as investing in it. A big pro is that it is a new asset class in the world. Every time a new asset class comes into being it makes for a great investment opportunity as new asset classes don’t some along often.

Cryptocurrencies as Technology

Trading and Investing

Cryptocurrencies behave a lot like a new technology in that there is an exponential growth curve which is reflected in the price. ETH could be bought for around $10 in 2016-17 and today it is worth over $300 with recent highs above $400. Weekly time-frame Ichimoku chart has a target at $750 within the next year most likely. Trading and investing are similar but, two different animals. A con with trading in general that does not occur as easy with investing is that it is easy to lose money trading for a lot of reasons, as a beginner. Most of them have less to do with proficiency and the mechanics of trading and more to do with emotional factors, especially how we view money itself. The market it a brutal but honest teacher at times and it will teach you how to look at your belief system. And, it is always your fault when you lose, the market never lies, only we can lie to ourselves. In the beginning I wish I would have spent a bit more time learning this versus spending most of my allotted learning time on technical analysis. I have found quite a few good time tested resources on the trading topic if you are interested. Always start with a few hundred $ and work up slowly until the charts stop looking like just a bunch of lines and start to intuitively make sense and your heart no longer drops every time the prices go red. It’s as if you have to develop a Zen or Taoist attitude to the market. Start with something really simple for a trading rule and stick to it. The more simple and boring the better until you get experience. And, on a longer time frame, daily and weekly charts, not less than hourly charts to start. In the limit as time –> 0 the charts become just noise which can cause confusion at best. Crypto has much more volatility than many other asset classes, so more noise there too. Especially the small cap coins, up 100% one day, down the next and as usual it takes double the gain to make up for a loss of half, so losses mount fast in downward price shocks. BTC and ETH, being large cap are less volatile than the rest, about 3000 of them, some of which are a joke (literally DOGE and Siraj coin are memes) and really have no future at all, Big pro. Investing for the long haul is one of the easiest easy options to start that can even be combined with trading/active investing. One of the best methods to invest in an asset with exponential growth is to accumulate the asset when the price is below the 1 year to 2 year average price and then distribute out at a price that is a multiple (2,3,5) of the 1-2 year moving average. Golden Ratio Multiplier Chart. This is an almost foolproof way to actively invest and could be used to dollar cost average in at the best times. Feel free to reach out to me for any more and research. I would highly recommend listening the Lex Fridman podcast where he interviews Vitalik Buterin the co-creator of ETH to get a flavor of the mind of who is behind it.