Blockchain example slide

Proof of Work why use it and why does it use energy

Proof of Work

Proof of work relates to mining of cryptocurrency. It uses computing resources to solve a mathematical puzzle of sorts that takes a lot of compute power to solve but a minimum amount of power to verify that it has been completed. It is an example of a one way function. Easy to go one way but hard to go in the other. Imagine throwing a glass of water in the ocean, now imagine getting all of that water and only that water back out, like running a film backwards, might be impossible. The closer the one way function is to the glass in the ocean example the more secure a blockchain can be made. Why is that? Because it would take so much effort to mutate or corrupt the blockchain that it is not even worth trying.

Brilliant Idea, from Anti-SPAM to Blockchain

In the case of Bitcoin, mining occurs across thousands of nodes that can easily verify that the “work’ has been done and as long as there is a > 50% consensus among mining nodes , then the block is deemed valid and the nodes accept it and move on to the next block of transactions. So it would take an enormous amount of computing power to ‘fake’ a block and create a duplicate spend or a spend that pays an entity some unearned (Bitcoin) BTC, stealing it effectively. That in essence is the brilliance of Bitcoin and it’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto. All the ideas are not original, there was once an idea to use proof of work to prevent spam in email in the mid 1990s when SPAM became a nuisance. For regular uses it would delay the email by a few seconds, for a spammer sending out 1000’s of emails their computer would slow down to much to make it worth it. Satoshi Nakamoto took this idea and applied it to Bitcoin.

The chain part of block chain

On top of this, proof of work  that secures a single block, every block contains the hash of the previous block making it extremely hard to ‘fake’ out and create old blocks over as many hashes would have to be faked. So the longer the chain the more secure older transactions become as they become harder and harder to undo , or fake out.

Hashing in Cryptocurrency

Hashing is the key. Hashing is used in several ways in cryptocurrency.(toward the end of this post a second use is covered) . When mining a block a hash is generated for that block, a SHA256 hash. But not just any hash works. It has to be lower than a specific number determined by the difficulty adjustment, the so called target hash. This changes periodically to keep the outputs of blocks on the block chain, a giant electronic ledger of transactions, blocks are produced very 10 minutes on average. This also limits how many transactions can occur in a given time period. Blocks contain a finite number of transactions and they come out at period intervals, so there are only so many made per day. For Bitcoin this limits the daily transaction to something like around 300000. Other cryptocurrencies do better in this regard (but, buyer beware, they are beholden to companies or individuals that created them,so not independent from control like Bitcoin), so do layer 2 solutions like the Lightning network for Bitcoin. in the future most likely only large infrequent transactions will occur on Bitcoin main chain. With other solutions like the Lightning network or other cryptocurrencies serving to move money like PayPal or a Point Of Sale network, or Swift for that matter.

To create the special hash know as the target hash that meets the difficulty requirement means creating a hash that is lower than a specific 256 bit number. It contains a bunch of zeros at the beginning. This is done by add what is called a nonce ( just a random string will work, used just once  to make the hash come out lower than the target) to the block of transactions and computing the hash. The nonce can be a completely random string or a sequence of numbers tried in order, it really doesn’t matter. The only requirement is that whatever it is it creates a hash output that is lower than the number, target hash, specified by the difficulty requirement. In mining the first node that obtains this number will broadcast the result on the BTC network, all mining nodes will check it (hash the block and see if they agree, quick and easy to do), if it’s OK, the block becomes accepted added to the chain and that miner, the one who solved the hash, gets the block reward along with the fees for all the transactions that have been validated in the block. And, all nodes move on to the next block.

The hash itself

A typical block hash would look something like this…

00000000000000000007cd983a54a4eaf969d79961681fa2fa41eff0aba4a168

Notice all the zeros. With 256 byte number, using SHA256, it is hexadecimal where every number is 0-15 it takes a while to arrive at a number like this. Basically all the nodes that handle the blockchain that are mining are trying to get a ‘low’ number by changing the nonce.

Energy

This takes a lot of computing power and therefore energy. And, this is the complaint when it comes to cryptocurrency that are mined such as Bitcoin. The energy used to mine Bitcoin is equal to that of a small country. But, it has to be remembered that the whole financial technology sector of the economy still dwarfs the energy use of Bitcoin. Just imagine all of the ATMs alone that are plugged in all over the world, the computers running in the banks, heating, other electric and etc. Also, Bitcoin can be mined using energy that is otherwise orphaned. Meaning energy that can not be used for anything else. An example is natural gas and a petroleum well that might normally be flared off. Instead of flaring it off, it could be burned in a gas turbine turning a generator and run mining equipment. The mining equipment could be connected via Cell network or Satellite if no wire are available in a remote location. It is a way of burning a fuel at the source and generating value from it that otherwise would go to waste.

Proof of Work Example

Just a simple example of using a nonce along with a string ‘hello’ in this case and then printing out the resulting hashes of the new compound string of hello+nonce.

As more zeroes are required it gets harder and harder to find a nonce that will satisfy the requirement. To find the first hash with one zero at the start it takes 28 tries, ‘hello28’.

To get 8 leading zeroes it takes hello1202655595  = 1202655595 tries, on fairly regular computer it took from 2022-11-19 15:42 to 2022-11-19 16:48. Just over 1 hour.

Proof of Work Here it comes, ready…

I can give you the hash…

00000000e0d103722c6e172e145d15b9e909e109b47b30d741911bdb3cf3da84

and the string….

hello1202655595

….and this is proof that work was done. You can prove it. It took work to get this result, the computer ‘did’ something hard. It takes almost no energy and time to verify that the hash above is generated by hello1202655595, so it is cheap to verify but expensive to produce.

By ‘stamping’ this result into the blocks on the blockchain, hash of previous block into every block, it is very hard (glass of water back out the ocean hard) to create a forgery or do some other type of nastiness to the blockchain. Proof of Work secures the blockchain.

(Python code at the bottom of this post)

erick@OptiPlex-7010:~/python/hashing$ python3 multi-pow-hash-of-string.py 
Enter String to hash: hello
2cf24dba5fb0a30e26e83b2ac5b9e29e1b161e5c1fa7425e73043362938b9824
2022-11-19 15:42:15.173991 1 hello28 02a13c40ba00dc0fb199d3cbe5b01be59d937775890243fd411bdf001935ffc8
2022-11-19 15:42:15.175116 2 hello227 001b92541ed0a22b0cb89018b561d895503206c0082c0ecf2d0b7e5182191eed
2022-11-19 15:42:15.206154 3 hello10284 0006bc9ad4253c42e32b546dc17e5ea3fedaecdabef371b09906cea9387e8695
2022-11-19 15:42:15.350531 4 hello60067 0000e49eab06aa7a6b3aef7708991b91a7e01451fd67f520b832b89b18f4e7de
2022-11-19 15:42:15.771205 5 hello156056 0000037660ee0e22df67a053537e000325bbfad2cce9b8b7c795f6aa961d5cb7
2022-11-19 15:43:47.285252 6 hello33290382 000000865194de5c0744d72183dcce2eca2b69264b749a1798f1b6996baef7de
2022-11-19 15:49:22.363936 7 hello121001637 0000000bcd89bc714263460f7b1fc82562410b96eaeec5cc2175e83f2d215046
2022-11-19 16:48:46.136385 8 hello1202655595 00000000e0d103722c6e172e145d15b9e909e109b47b30d741911bdb3cf3da84

Keys and Addresses

To round it out, the other main use of cryptography in cryptocurrencies, the private key, secures your ‘coins’. If you aren’t careful to hide and not reveal your private key, you lose your coins. Your public key which is basically translated into an address for BTC (and others) it is a 160 byte number can be freely given out, posted online, in email, put it anywhere you wish. Why? Because all someone an ever do with the public key/address is send you some ‘coin’. So if they did, great. And, if it is a publicly transparent blockchain like Bitcoin and most others, privacy coins such as Zcash and Monero for example being the exception, you can trace the transactions. Just put a public address into the browser search bar and various tools will appear that allow you to trace transactions to an address. So the criminals that think cryptocurrency gives them some kind of magic cloaking mechanism for their transactions are getting it wrong. The cryptography in cryptocurrency has nothing to do with keeping a record of transactions securing hidden away, in fact the transactions are as transparent as they could possibly be.

 



Infographic showing #3 a blockchain and a block consisting of it’s sequence number, the hash of the previous block and the nonce, plus a record of transactions.

The miner of the block gets the reward plus all the fees for the transactions. In 2021 when this was made the block reward was 6.25BTC per block mined. This is cut in half approximately every 4 years, until it drops off  altogether around the year 2140. By then the fees will be the only thing sustaining the miners financially. The fact that there is only a finite amount of Bitcoin that can be mined, ever, 21 Million of them, keeps inflation of Bitcoin at bay. This is not the case for all coins, some cryptocurrencies can create more and more coins at will, so they are inflationary. Bitcoin is a fixed supply of which most of it has been mined already. So most of the stock is already created and the flow of more coins gets lower and lower with each block reward halving, every 4 years. This concept of stock to flow is important because it is a measure of scarcity. If something can be made easily like fiat currency the flow can be a large input to the stock in existence. This is what is going on in 2022 with economies all over the world that have printed massive amounts of fiat money during the Covid crisis, when the stock to flow is not a good ratio, inflation results. The opposite occurs with gold for example, it is hard to increase the amount of gold pulled from the earth, so the flow of new gold into the current world stock of gold is less than 2% per year, (I think that I remember the max was just 2.2% somewhere in the WW2 time frame) so in essence the market is never flooded with new gold, which would debase gold against other stores of value.

Blockchain example slide

 

 

Blockchain example slide

'''
https://www.pythoncentral.io/hashing-strings-with-python/
'''
import hashlib
from datetime import datetime

mystring = input('Enter String to hash: ')
# Assumes the default UTF-8
hash_object = hashlib.sha256(mystring.encode())
print(hash_object.hexdigest())

for DIF in range(1,32):
    for n in range(1,1000000000000):

            x = mystring + str(n)
            hash_object = hashlib.sha256(x.encode())
            d = hash_object.hexdigest()

            #print(x,d)
            tally = 0

            for z in range(0,DIF):
                    if d[z] == '0':
                            tally += 1

            if tally == DIF:
                break

    timestamp = str(datetime.now())

    print(timestamp,DIF,x,d)

Resources

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452010-bitcoin-energy-usage-isnt-a-problem-heres-why

https://ingoldwetrust.report/the-stock-to-flow-ratio-as-the-most-significant-reason-for-golds-monetary-importance/?lang=en

JPEG image Metcalfe's Law BTC

Bitcoin Charting Resources for Long Term Investing

“Good investing is not necessarily about making good decisions. It’s about consistently not screwing up.” – Morgan Housel author of The Psychology of Money

Accumulation/Distribution Aids

2 year moving average investor tool

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/

Puell Multiple, an oscillator, accumulate at bottoms, distribute at tops

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/puell-multiple/

MVRV Z-Score, an oscillator, accumulate at bottoms, distribute at tops

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/

Pi cycle top indicator, finds tops…it actually worked again in 2021

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/

Market Sentiment, fear and greed index…

Fear mode = Might be a buying opportunity, people are scared and dumping BTC probably at a loss to them in full panic mode, macro indicators are crashing, full panic, bank run on exchanges, major crisis crypto or otherwise…

Greed Mode = Look out, euphoria is happening, price may drop soon as BTC is in the news and suckers buying in late in the game pushing the price parabolic, like the old saying, ” Bulls run up the stairs only to jump out the window.”…

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index/

HODL wave 1 year. BTC sitting on chain for more than a year, shows if people are accumulating or distributing

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/1-year-hodl-wave/

Realized Price, might be a good indicator of fair value for BTC.  A gauge of relative under/overvalue….

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/realized-price/

Wallet Sizes, who is holding large amounts of BTC, good to track the ‘smart money’, are they accumulating or distributing?

Wallet > 1 BTC

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-1-btc/

Wallet > 10 BTC

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-10-btc/

Wallet > 100 BTC

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-100-btc/

Wallet > 1000 BTC

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-1000-btc/

Look into Bitcoin, has many more charts…

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/


Mayer Multiple

Basically accumulate until it hits 2.4, then hold, sell at the top optionally, then when it drops below 1.5 start accumulating again.

https://bitcoinition.com/charts/mayer-multiple/

Metcalfe’s Law Model

This is a static chart, (don’t remember where it is from) would love to see this as a dynamic one. Seems to show a fair value for BTC. Paper on Metcalfe’s law and Bitcoin

Mushroom Mycellium Timelapse Video

Timelapse photography is back with a new setup after a multi year hiatus. Still using the Raspberry PI and old school low res webcam, just in a new location in my utility room with a light on 24/7.

On this video 1 second of play is one hour of real time.

The substrate that the mycellium is growing on is corn, popping corn and about 25% rye grain that have be pressure cooked to sterilized. It also has a small amount of ground coffee mixed in with it to provide small pieces of substrate for the mycellium to branch off of quickly. This batch was inoculated by using a spore syringe, right at the top of the jar and takes a few days to take off and show up in frame.

 

M2 Money Supply

The War Machine and the Federal Reserve

Give a listen to the following clips taken from the book The Creature From Jekyl Island by G. Edward Griffin. I won’t give away the plot but, bear in mind what is going on in early 2022 with regards to the Ukraine and of course previous conflicts. Each is short, about 3 – 7 minutes each.

The first audio file is a short reference for the book

1111 – ITEM Now the action has spread

1112 – The New Alchemy

1113 – Fifth Reason to Abolish

1114 – Summary

 

M2 Money Supply

Also see this chart ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL )  an image of which is presented as the featured image at the top of this post as of March 2020. Lots of fiat money being created lately by the system of creating debt by the Federal Reserve lending to the US Govt. Treasury and then effectively printing new money via the Treasury/Mint. As in, instead of the Govt. just minting money and creating it as one might expect, it is loaned to the Govt by the Federal Reserve. This gets around the Constitution which states that Congress can’t print bills of basically fiat money, bills of exchange. In theory bills should be against something, like a hard asset. It used to be that the Dollar was based on a specific amount of silver, that which is in the old silver dollars, I believe it was 371.25 grains of pure silver per dollar, based of the Spanish Dollar, so called pieces of 8, as it was worth 8 Reals. The dollar on paper was directly tied to this, since 1971 it is not tied to silver or gold and is just fiat.

 

 

 

Crypto Donations to Ukraine

Excerpt from 03.03.2022. Coinbase Bytes article published by Coinbase , lays out how to support Ukraine with crypto donations. Also from this it can be seen how important cryptocurrencies can be during an economic disruption. Passing this on to let others see this and also learn from what Coinbase has to say about this topic.

The quote at the bottom sums up the importance of cryptocurrencies in a time of crisis…

“My Ukrainian credit cards don’t work anymore. I’m safe physically in Kazakhstan, but all my savings are gone. Crypto is the only money I still have, and today I can say without exaggeration that $BTC, $ETH and #NFT[s] are going to save my life while I can’t come back home.”

As always with crypto, make sure you know what address you are sending to, make sure it is from a legitimate source, scams abound. Always double check the crypto address whenever cutting and pasting make sure it matches as bad actors have been known to create viruses that can hijack an address copied and pasted so funds go to them!

Links coming from legitimate sources are important. I copied some links from the excerpt below with locations to donate via crypto. For example…

The official Twitter accounts of the government and Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov shared wallet addresses for BTC, ETH, and the USD-pegged stablecoin Tether

the Kyiv Independent also listed BTC and ETH wallets

CRYPTO SUPPORT

Crypto donations pour into Ukraine as the country resists Russian invasion

As Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s full-scale invasion, international sanctions begin to hobble the Russian economy, Russian president Vladimir Putin has resorted to nuclear saber-rattling, and global markets have whipsawed. On Monday, oil prices reached over $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014, and the Russian Ruble lost 30% of its value against the dollar, plummeting to record lows. For Ukrainians, emergency economic measures — including cash withdrawal limits (about $3,350 per day) — have prompted the country’s government, citizens, and even newspapers to call for crypto aid. Let’s take a closer look at some ways crypto is assisting during a time of crisis.

  • Ukraine has raised over $30 million in cryptocurrency since tweeting an appeal for donations on Saturday. The official Twitter accounts of the government and Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov shared wallet addresses for BTC, ETH, and the USD-pegged stablecoin Tether (which saw such significant demand on Ukraine crypto exchange Kuna that it traded above its peg, reaching $1.10) Why crypto donations? As blockchain analytics firm Elliptic explains, “Cryptoassets such as Bitcoin have emerged as an important alternative crowdfunding method. They allow quick, cross-border donations.”
  • Russian-Canadian Ethereum co-creator Vitalik Buterin amplified the appeal on Twitter as part of a string of tweets that included a sharp rebuke of Moscow, calling the invasion “a crime against the Ukrainian and Russian people.” In other Ethereum news, Uniswap added a tool on Tuesday that allows users to swap any crypto for ETH and send it to the Ukrainian government’s wallet in a single transaction.
  • A founding member of the Russian pro-democracy punk group Pussy Riot formed a DAO to raise funds for Ukrainian civilians. Pussy Riot’s Nadya Tolokonnikova, along with members of PleasrDAO and artist Trippy Labs, formed UkraineDAO, which sold 10,000 Ethereum-based Ukrainian flag NFTs and plans to donate all proceeds (over $5 million) to the Come Back Alive Foundation, which supports Ukraine’s military, and the Proliska non-governmental organization. (If you are considering donating crypto, be mindful of potential scams and always do your research first.)
  • The Kyiv Independent, an English-language newspaper in Ukraine is seeking crypto donations to support the country’s independent media. In addition to GoFundMe pages for the paper and several partners, the Kyiv Independent also listed BTC and ETH wallets. Meanwhile, a Berlin-based blockchain startup called Arweave is attempting to preserve historical documents about the crisis — so far its network of 1,000 nodes holds about 50 terabytes of related data.
  • Last November, The New York Times described Ukrainians as among the “most avid cryptocurrency users in the world,” and they rank fourth in Chainalysis’ 2021 Global Crypto Adoption Index. Why? A combination of factors — from high inflation to a widespread lack of trust in local banks. Ukraine is also a highly tech-forward nation, with an IT export business worth almost $7 billion last year. Ukraine also adopted a progressive bill last September, enabling the government to regulate crypto.

Why it matters… Ukranians are using crypto to defend themselves from Russia’s invasion, protect their wealth, and fund their escapes to neighboring nations. In one sobering tweet, a citizen explained: “My Ukrainian credit cards don’t work anymore. I’m safe physically in Kazakhstan, but all my savings are gone. Crypto is the only money I still have, and today I can say without exaggeration that $BTC, $ETH and #NFT[s] are going to save my life while I can’t come back home.”

Crypto Basics Notes

Having an ‘edge’ and surviving are two different things: the first requires the second. You need to avoid ruin. At all costs.” – Nassim Taleb

Class Slides

The following are the handmade slides from the class. Well all but the last one on valuation.

Resources

Here on this site

See the trading category on this site for more information on trading and investing on this site…

http://erick.heart-centered-living.org/trading/

On the Internet

Also, the following are resources that were mentioned in the class. Good places to start on the path to learning more about investing and crypto as well…

Subject: Game of Trades at 14:08:10, Mon Nov 15, 2021 from 192.168.1.66

https://www.youtube.com/c/GameofTrades


Subject: The Crypto Sniper at 14:05:40, Mon Nov 15, 2021 from 192.168.1.66

https://www.youtube.com/c/TheCryptoSniper


Subject: Brave New Coin at 14:04:54, Mon Nov 15, 2021 from 192.168.1.66

https://www.youtube.com/c/bravenewcoin


Subject: Josh Olszewicz at 14:03:59, Mon Nov 15, 2021 from 192.168.1.66

https://www.youtube.com/c/carpenoctom


Subject: ARK Invest at 14:02:21, Mon Nov 15, 2021 from 192.168.1.66

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCK-zlnUfoDHzUwXcbddtnkg


Subject: Breaking Bad Fat Stacks at 13:45:44, Mon Nov 15, 2021 from 192.168.1.66

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48OJbbI0DfE


Subject: Electrum Wallet at 17:49:48, Sun Nov 14, 2021 from 192.168.1.66

https://electrum.org/#home


Subject: 1964 Prices at 11:14:49, Sun Nov 14, 2021 from 192.168.1.29

https://www.reference.com/history/much-did-everyday-items-cost-1964-cfba9fcd6734ea4f https://misterboomer.com/2014/04/boomers-and-the-cost-of-living-in-1964/ http://www.348-409.com/1964flash.html


Subject: Silver Coin Value Guide at 11:11:02, Sun Nov 14, 2021 from 192.168.1.29

https://www.coinflation.com/silver_coin_values.html


Sorelle Amore Finance

As far as finance, I agree with most of what she has to say…

Some Crazy Price Moves

A class on crypto would not be complete without showing some crazy price moves that are only possible in the crypto world.

AU-USD Prices to 3/2021

Opinions of Trading

There is too much hype an charlatanism out there waiting to mislead and take advantage of newbies, pushing a lot of nonsense. This is a quick post, stream of conciousness with some of my personal opinions.
Myself, I use several trading strategies, from mean reversion and gap buying algos running on a 5m tick tuned using genetic differential evolution, mid range day to week algos, trend and mean reverting, to manual trades that take weeks and to long term holds in a custom index fund that get added to over time. Personally for manual trading/investing if I had to choose one technique out of them all, Ichimoku would be the one. Daily/Weekly for most assets, gold and silver, Weekly/Monthly.

Trading and Investing in General

 It’s not for everyone and it’s not something to jump into blindly. Start very small, like 1% of your net worth, learn and then build up your position sizes slowly as a reward for success. Other than your ‘play’ money, while learning just buy and hold with the bulk of you invest able $. There is a lot more to it than charts and excitement when TSLA and DOGE climb. It’s more about psychology (See Elder Alexander and Morgan Housel)and risk management than anything. Forget about get rich quick and fast money, let it ride out for the long term. Day trading is not the place to start either. It is much to0 confusing for a beginner as to read signal (trend) in the noise of random price movements at low timeframes. Myself, I leave the low time frame stuff to algos, and mostly mean reversion works better than trend following with high noise at low time frames. To do algos, you need to know/learn code, well I might add, not just wing it. It’s not for everyone, depends on your skills and motivation to learn, math, physics, CS, engineering helps here. Briefly, just look at the edge cases, buy and hold and super quick trades. Super quick trades, noise, fees and slippage will eat your $ up. Plus, do you really want to sit in front of the computer watching 1,5,15m candles with a finger hovering on the mouse all day. That’s for machines to excel at, really. Buy and hold works and is super low maintenance, but in my opinion it can be easily improved on with a few small considerations. Use some basic moving averages, long ones, 1yr, 2, what ever makes sense on the major high and low cycles, then pick a multiple of this value not the time of the average, curve fit it to past data that is reasonable, DCA (Dollar Cost Average) in below the long base average, DCA out above the multiplier, like 5X the 730 day avg for BTC, for example. This helps get some more bang out of a plain buy and hold. The timing depends on how fast the asset moves. BTC, shorter cycles from peaks at about 3-5 years apart, think 2013,2018,2021 a 2 year MA works well and for the multiplier, look at the lows and highs and fit to them. Stocks, using an index like SPY, think of the last low, the real low, on March 9,2009, moves slower than BTC. But averages can be fit to the lows for a good DCA in. Gold, slower too. Look at an asset, see how long it took to 10x on a buy and hold hypothetically, that gives you a sense of the speed of assent. BTC does it in less than a year at times. Silver, just because, I know it off the top of my head was around $3 around 2003 and in 2011 it 10x’s that, a 1964 quarter was almost $0.25 in silver weight then, now it’s worth $4+ in Silver, so that’s it’s rate of change. Went on a bit of a tangent, hope this is helpful for someone.

Intro to Cryprocurrency

This post is a bit of a quick rant on the basics of cryptocurrencies (crypto) and is just my opinions and not any advice on investing. It started as a response to someone that was interested in learning a bit of the basics of cryptocurrency. Then I got on a roll and covered a bit of ground. It does not contain many references to sources as I was working from memory of information that I have seen or heard.

Pros and Cons

One of the cons with cryptocurrencies is wading through the charlatans and hype out there. Scammers too, malware that tries to copy your crypto addresses as you cut and paste them, always visually confirm and never leak your private addresses in an unsecured environment, they are your money. hype and nonsense out there also applies to trading, investing and mining it. Lots of pros to it. But, it all really depends what you want to do with it. The options typically center around trading,investing,mining it and using it as a payment method. I’ll work through the list a bit and build my case for crypto as I move along. Mining a coin such as ETH ,is not profitable for most people at the moment, Currently electricity and equipment costs factor into this heavily. However this may change in the future as ETH will be moved from a proof of work to a proof of stake model (a bit much to explain in this intro, but if you go to the site name for the creator of Bitcoin, Nakamoto.com, there is a whole intro to cryptocurrency series of posts there), with ETH 2.0, along with other changes. Using it as a payment method is getting simpler every day, there are numerous apps for it, Cash App and Coinbase for example.  PayPal and Venmo will be integrating crypto purchases into there systems.

Fundamentals

What is going on that may cause prices to rise

People in Europe that work on the underpinnings of the banking system that allows money to move around under the hood, kind of like our ACH system here in the US are working with the folks who developed the crypto called LINK. This has leaked out, I saw the presentation where the guy giving it slipped and said the name that LINK uses in it’s code instead of the secret project name that they were using to cover up LINK’s involvement. These projects are typically secret with NDA’s and all but, human error and a slip of the tongue can happen. The US Gov’t, Treasury Dept. has hired the person that developed the stable coin called USDC for Coinbase. He worked for a bank prior to Coinbase, the name I can’t remember, but there is a picture of him with 2 other co workers that now work in the Treasury Dept. so he was most likely hired because he was the lead in developing the USDC stable coin for Coinbase. A stable coin is a coin that attempts to stay in lockstep with a fiat currency. USDC is always $1, some others ary a little bit around $1, like a range a few pennies up and down at most. Examples are Tether and DAI. On top the Gov’t reserach into an electronic coin, there was initial language in the draft for the stimulus package that was removed that reference disbursing payments using electronic coins developed by the US Gov’t. I saw copies of this, it was interesting to see a reference to an electronic coin in a gov’t doc. Also, large banks are starting to work to become custodians for crypto currencies as well, they are entering into agreements with exchanges to be the custodians of large amount of crypto. BTC futures are traded on the Chicago exchange (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), something the big boys in the investment banks are interested in. There is something called BAKKT that the investment banks are working on, I forgot the details but, it relates to cryptocurrencies Why does this matter? This is all a big pro. Because governments adopting blockchain technology, Investment banks are starting to use crypto as an investment vehicle and considering being custodians of it and integrating blockchain tech into transactions. All of this validates it’s existence, which means only more growth in the future as people (investors really and end users eventually) realize it is not some kind of fad and a toy for tech hobbyists. Remember the curve of other tech. The first home computers were also “toys” and now we can’t live without (several of them, think phones too) them, the same will happen with crypto currencies in time. As far as investing in it. A big pro is that it is a new asset class in the world. Every time a new asset class comes into being it makes for a great investment opportunity as new asset classes don’t some along often.

Cryptocurrencies as Technology

Trading and Investing

Cryptocurrencies behave a lot like a new technology in that there is an exponential growth curve which is reflected in the price. ETH could be bought for around $10 in 2016-17 and today it is worth over $300 with recent highs above $400. Weekly time-frame Ichimoku chart has a target at $750 within the next year most likely. Trading and investing are similar but, two different animals. A con with trading in general that does not occur as easy with investing is that it is easy to lose money trading for a lot of reasons, as a beginner. Most of them have less to do with proficiency and the mechanics of trading and more to do with emotional factors, especially how we view money itself. The market it a brutal but honest teacher at times and it will teach you how to look at your belief system. And, it is always your fault when you lose, the market never lies, only we can lie to ourselves. In the beginning I wish I would have spent a bit more time learning this versus spending most of my allotted learning time on technical analysis. I have found quite a few good time tested resources on the trading topic if you are interested. Always start with a few hundred $ and work up slowly until the charts stop looking like just a bunch of lines and start to intuitively make sense and your heart no longer drops every time the prices go red. It’s as if you have to develop a Zen or Taoist attitude to the market. Start with something really simple for a trading rule and stick to it. The more simple and boring the better until you get experience. And, on a longer time frame, daily and weekly charts, not less than hourly charts to start. In the limit as time –> 0 the charts become just noise which can cause confusion at best. Crypto has much more volatility than many other asset classes, so more noise there too. Especially the small cap coins, up 100% one day, down the next and as usual it takes double the gain to make up for a loss of half, so losses mount fast in downward price shocks. BTC and ETH, being large cap are less volatile than the rest, about 3000 of them, some of which are a joke (literally DOGE and Siraj coin are memes) and really have no future at all, Big pro. Investing for the long haul is one of the easiest easy options to start that can even be combined with trading/active investing. One of the best methods to invest in an asset with exponential growth is to accumulate the asset when the price is below the 1 year to 2 year average price and then distribute out at a price that is a multiple (2,3,5) of the 1-2 year moving average. Golden Ratio Multiplier Chart. This is an almost foolproof way to actively invest and could be used to dollar cost average in at the best times. Feel free to reach out to me for any more and research. I would highly recommend listening the Lex Fridman podcast where he interviews Vitalik Buterin the co-creator of ETH to get a flavor of the mind of who is behind it.