Category Archives: Money

JPEG image Metcalfe's Law BTC

Bitcoin Charting Resources for Long Term Investing

Info Links, Money, Trading, ,

“Good investing is not necessarily about making good decisions. It’s about consistently not screwing up.” – Morgan Housel author of The Psychology of Money

Accumulation/Distribution Aids

2 year moving average investor tool

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/

Puell Multiple, an oscillator, accumulate at bottoms, distribute at tops

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/puell-multiple/

MVRV Z-Score, an oscillator, accumulate at bottoms, distribute at tops

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/

Pi cycle top indicator, finds tops…it actually worked again in 2021

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/

Market Sentiment, fear and greed index…

Fear mode = Might be a buying opportunity, people are scared and dumping BTC probably at a loss to them in full panic mode, macro indicators are crashing, full panic, bank run on exchanges, major crisis crypto or otherwise…

Greed Mode = Look out, euphoria is happening, price may drop soon as BTC is in the news and suckers buying in late in the game pushing the price parabolic, like the old saying, ” Bulls run up the stairs only to jump out the window.”…

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index/

HODL wave 1 year. BTC sitting on chain for more than a year, shows if people are accumulating or distributing

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/1-year-hodl-wave/

Realized Price, might be a good indicator of fair value for BTC.  A gauge of relative under/overvalue….

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/realized-price/

Wallet Sizes, who is holding large amounts of BTC, good to track the ‘smart money’, are they accumulating or distributing?

Wallet > 1 BTC

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-1-btc/

Wallet > 10 BTC

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-10-btc/

Wallet > 100 BTC

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-100-btc/

Wallet > 1000 BTC

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-1000-btc/

Look into Bitcoin, has many more charts…

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/

Mayer Multiple

Basically accumulate until it hits 2.4, then hold, sell at the top optionally, then when it drops below 1.5 start accumulating again.

https://bitcoinition.com/charts/mayer-multiple/

Metcalfe’s Law Model

This is a static chart, (don’t remember where it is from) would love to see this as a dynamic one. Seems to show a fair value for BTC. Paper on Metcalfe’s law and Bitcoin

M2 Money Supply

The War Machine and the Federal Reserve

Money, My Thoughts,

Give a listen to the following clips taken from the book The Creature From Jekyl Island by G. Edward Griffin. I won’t give away the plot but, bear in mind what is going on in early 2022 with regards to the Ukraine and of course previous conflicts. Each is short, about 3 – 7 minutes each.

The first audio file is a short reference for the book

1111 – ITEM Now the action has spread

1112 – The New Alchemy

1113 – Fifth Reason to Abolish

1114 – Summary

 

M2 Money Supply

Also see this chart ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL )  an image of which is presented as the featured image at the top of this post as of March 2020. Lots of fiat money being created lately by the system of creating debt by the Federal Reserve lending to the US Govt. Treasury and then effectively printing new money via the Treasury/Mint. As in, instead of the Govt. just minting money and creating it as one might expect, it is loaned to the Govt by the Federal Reserve. This gets around the Constitution which states that Congress can’t print bills of basically fiat money, bills of exchange. In theory bills should be against something, like a hard asset. It used to be that the Dollar was based on a specific amount of silver, that which is in the old silver dollars, I believe it was 371.25 grains of pure silver per dollar, based of the Spanish Dollar, so called pieces of 8, as it was worth 8 Reals. The dollar on paper was directly tied to this, since 1971 it is not tied to silver or gold and is just fiat.