“Good investing is not necessarily about making good decisions. It’s about consistently not screwing up.” – Morgan Housel author of The Psychology of Money
Accumulation/Distribution Aids
2 year moving average investor tool
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/
Puell Multiple, an oscillator, accumulate at bottoms, distribute at tops
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/puell-multiple/
MVRV Z-Score, an oscillator, accumulate at bottoms, distribute at tops
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/
Pi cycle top indicator, finds tops…it actually worked again in 2021
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/
Market Sentiment, fear and greed index…
Fear mode = Might be a buying opportunity, people are scared and dumping BTC probably at a loss to them in full panic mode, macro indicators are crashing, full panic, bank run on exchanges, major crisis crypto or otherwise…
Greed Mode = Look out, euphoria is happening, price may drop soon as BTC is in the news and suckers buying in late in the game pushing the price parabolic, like the old saying, ” Bulls run up the stairs only to jump out the window.”…
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index/
HODL wave 1 year. BTC sitting on chain for more than a year, shows if people are accumulating or distributing
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/1-year-hodl-wave/
Realized Price, might be a good indicator of fair value for BTC. A gauge of relative under/overvalue….
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/realized-price/
Wallet Sizes, who is holding large amounts of BTC, good to track the ‘smart money’, are they accumulating or distributing?
Wallet > 1 BTC
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-1-btc/
Wallet > 10 BTC
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-10-btc/
Wallet > 100 BTC
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-100-btc/
Wallet > 1000 BTC
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-1000-btc/
Look into Bitcoin, has many more charts…
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/
Mayer Multiple
Basically accumulate until it hits 2.4, then hold, sell at the top optionally, then when it drops below 1.5 start accumulating again.
https://bitcoinition.com/charts/mayer-multiple/
Metcalfe’s Law Model
This is a static chart, (don’t remember where it is from) would love to see this as a dynamic one. Seems to show a fair value for BTC. Paper on Metcalfe’s law and Bitcoin
